tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5214129120965176560.post5040958612047970965..comments2022-12-03T10:08:46.775+08:00Comments on 兩岸三地 Liang An San Di: 利比亞的例子: 對北韓合適嗎? UN Resolution on Libya: A precedent for North Korea?Daniel A. Monghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00921827544381850249noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5214129120965176560.post-45159670770807653992011-03-20T22:48:43.164+08:002011-03-20T22:48:43.164+08:00This was right in 1995. Since then, thanks partly ...This was right in 1995. Since then, thanks partly to mobile phones, many North Koreans are in regular contact with relatives who have gone to China or South Korea. You might have read, among others, Barbara Demick's book, "Nothing to Envy: Ordinary Lives in North Korea." Demick has done an excellent job of interviewing North Koreans living in the South. She has taken the time of meeting North Koreans of all opinions, not all positive about living in South Korea. I suspect that now, even soldiers, are informed about the South. Back then, the army leaders could count on China's support; now the situation is less certain and many citizens might not have the same degree of loyalty towards Kim's sons.Daniel A. Monghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00921827544381850249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5214129120965176560.post-7751074790523630822011-03-20T21:52:46.396+08:002011-03-20T21:52:46.396+08:00I'm afraid there's very little chance of t...I'm afraid there's very little chance of this happening. Unlike Libya, there is very little information coming out of North Korea, and if there were to be uprisings, then it's possible that they could be suppressed without any outside knowledge of it. This has already happened in 1995, when a group of soldiers marched on Pyong'yang from Hamhung in protest at the famine conditions, but were disarmed and suppressed and no one really knows what exactly happened then. The situation is likely to be similar today, notwithstanding the more porous borders.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5214129120965176560.post-53433143175276614642011-03-20T09:06:31.308+08:002011-03-20T09:06:31.308+08:00You mean, force Kim out? if it sees no threat and ...You mean, force Kim out? if it sees no threat and very strong assurances given by the US the at China's security is safe, probably. Wikileaks has proven that Chinese authorities have become annoyed at North Korea's leader and that they have less and less control over him. Better do it if the occasion presents itself. It all depends of course on which side, moderate or hardliner, has the upper hand when it happens.Daniel A. Monghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00921827544381850249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5214129120965176560.post-22675917219669418472011-03-20T08:56:28.381+08:002011-03-20T08:56:28.381+08:00Is China going to do it?Is China going to do it?tonyhttp://www.tony.comnoreply@blogger.com